What beliefs predict a Tea Partier?

Ezra Klein this morning points to a study of the political attitudes of a nationally representative sample of 3000 Americans. The authors – David Campbell and Robert Putnam — interviewed them years before the Tea Party poked out of its shell, and then again recently. “As a result,” they explain, “we can look at what people told us, long before there was a Tea Party, to predict who would become a Tea Party supporter five years later.” The results are revealing:

Our analysis casts doubt on the Tea Party’s “origin story.” Early on, Tea Partiers were often described as nonpartisan political neophytes. Actually, the Tea Party’s supporters today were highly partisan Republicans long before the Tea Party was born, and were more likely than others to have contacted government officials. In fact, past Republican affiliation is the single strongest predictor of Tea Party support today.

What’s more, contrary to some accounts, the Tea Party is not a creature of the Great Recession. Many Americans have suffered in the last four years, but they are no more likely than anyone else to support the Tea Party. And while the public image of the Tea Party focuses on a desire to shrink government, concern over big government is hardly the only or even the most important predictor of Tea Party support among voters.

So what do Tea Partiers have in common? They are overwhelmingly white, but even compared to other white Republicans, they had a low regard for immigrants and blacks long before Barack Obama was president, and they still do.

More important, they were disproportionately social conservatives in 2006 — opposing abortion, for example — and still are today. Next to being a Republican, the strongest predictor of being a Tea Party supporter today was a desire, back in 2006, to see religion play a prominent role in politics. And Tea Partiers continue to hold these views: they seek “deeply religious” elected officials, approve of religious leaders’ engaging in politics and want religion brought into political debates. The Tea Party’s generals may say their overriding concern is a smaller government, but not their rank and file, who are more concerned about putting God in government.

This inclination among the Tea Party faithful to mix religion and politics explains their support for Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota and Gov. Rick Perry of Texas. Their appeal to Tea Partiers lies less in what they say about the budget or taxes, and more in their overt use of religious language and imagery, including Mrs. Bachmann’s lengthy prayers at campaign stops and Mr. Perry’s prayer rally in Houston.

Yet it is precisely this infusion of religion into politics that most Americans increasingly oppose. While over the last five years Americans have become slightly more conservative economically, they have swung even further in opposition to mingling religion and politics. It thus makes sense that the Tea Party ranks alongside the Christian Right in unpopularity.

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About Guy N. Texas

Guy N. Texas is the pen name of a lawyer living in Dallas, who is now a liberal. He was once conservative, but this word has so morphed in meaning that he can no longer call himself that in good conscience. Guy has no political aspirations. He speaks only for himself.
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2 Responses to What beliefs predict a Tea Partier?

  1. Mountain Mama says:

    My personal, anecdotal observations of declared Tea Partiers is right on point with these findings. Except one: i don’t perceive them as simply wanting “deeply religious elected officials.”. I see them wanting “deeply religious” white Protestant elected officials. Would Tea Partiers get hyped up to elect a “deeply religious” Hispanic Catholic, for example? Or a “deeply religious” Orthodox Jew? Fat chance! We can only “pray” that the majority of voters will adhere to their instinctove rejection of mixing politics & religion and resist the Tea Party’s pious pushiness.

  2. hortonw says:

    I have not knowingly had many conversations with Tea Partiers. For that I am grateful. I did not speak to one briefly during a fiesty moment on the DC Metro. He was ranting about exporting jobs — not an unreasonable concern, but one with little obvious connection to individual income taxes — and I asked him what he did for a living. He said, without a hint of self-awareness, that he made robots.

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