(1) The Financial Times, via Talking Points Memorandum:
“Unless we are missing something the US is one false move away from a recession,” says Jim Reid, strategist at Deutsche Bank, who has warned the US could be approaching a “1937 moment” – when authorities removed post-Depression stimuli from still-fragile markets and triggered another recession. This risk, he says, has in fact only been magnified in the markets’ eyes by agreement on raising the US debt ceiling.
(2) Larry Summers, former Presidential economic advisor, via TPM:
“With growth at less than 1 percent in the first half of this year, the economy is effectively at a stall and facing the prospects of shocks from a European financial crisis that is decidedly not under control, spikes in oil prices and declines in business and household confidence,” Summers writes. “The indicators suggest that the economy has at least a 1-in-3 chance of falling back into recession if nothing new is done to raise demand and spur growth.”
(3) A good verbal summary of the economic statistics released in the past two weeks can be found in a good Bloomberg piece from today, the bottom line of which is that growth is still positive, but barely. The stock market went up, “preventing the longest Dow Jones Industrial Average slump since 1978,” but only because of speculation that the Fed may do more quantitative easing.
(4) Europe continues its slow economic slide into the sea. Krugman’s blog entry this morning draws some depressing historical parallels. You can access it here.
(5) On the other hand, awesome debate evidence is everywhere. It’s good that second negatives, at least, are happy.